Rainfall dynamics in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of Nigeria under RCP 8.5

The study analysed the historical (1961–90) and projected rainfall variability for rainy season expected in near future (2021–50) at selected locations within Komadugu-Yobe Sokoto-Rima River Basins Sudano-Sahelian zone of northern Nigeria. Three models were utilised, analyses based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Projected changes mean, level distribution using Relative Percentage Change Method Precipitation Index (PCI), while performance was evaluated Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) index. results show that mean will be predominantly negative, with a minimum maximum change ˗1.02 per cent Nguru, ˗70.4 Jos, IPSL-CM5A HadGEM2-ES models, respectively. baseline period varied between low moderate variability, ranges high levels variability. validation indicates acceptable performance, most values ranging 0.0 1.0. PCI suggests mainly characterised by uniform near-uniform distribution. Hence, negative some call development an Adaptive Benefit Mechanism minimise natural resource conflicts.